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Exploring the economic and environmental forces shaping Texas’ next real estate frontier.

The Rising Importance of Water in Texas Real Estate

Texas has always been defined by its relationship with water—where it flows, who controls it, and how much is left to go around. But as population growth, industrial expansion, and climate pressures converge, that relationship is being tested in unprecedented ways.

According to the Texas Real Estate Research Center’s recent Tierra Grande issue, “Wrangling Texas Water,” the state’s reliable water supplies are projected to decline by nearly 18% between 2020 and 2070, even as demand continues to rise.

That forecast has profound implications not only for agriculture but also for commercial development, industrial site selection, and long-term land valuation—key areas of concern for anyone in the CRE sector.

Scarcity as a Market Force

For decades, water was a given in most valuation models—a utility line item rather than a variable. That’s changing quickly.

Scarcity is now a defining market force in regions across Texas, particularly in the Hill Country, West Texas, and the outskirts of fast-growing metros like Austin, San Antonio, and Dallas-Fort Worth.

Land parcels with secure, long-term water access, whether through municipal infrastructure, private wells, or water rights, are beginning to command premium pricing and stronger investor interest.

Meanwhile, areas facing depleted aquifers or uncertain groundwater district regulations may see cap rates expand and development timelines slow, especially for projects requiring high water consumption such as data centers, manufacturing, or multi-family developments.

How Water Constraints Influence Development Feasibility

1. Municipal Capacity Limits. Cities across Texas are re-evaluating infrastructure investments and utility extensions as their per-capita water availability drops. This directly affects where and how new projects can break ground. Developers may encounter moratoriums on new hookups or steep impact fees in high-growth corridors.

2. Entitlement Risk. Water supply studies are increasingly part of the entitlement process. A property’s ability to demonstrate access to a sustainable source can determine whether it qualifies for certain zoning, permitting, or subdivision approvals.

3. Financing Considerations. Lenders and investors are beginning to ask tougher questions about water risk—particularly in long-horizon investments such as master-planned communities or agricultural transitions. A parcel’s valuation may now need to incorporate a “water-adjusted” risk premium.

4. Industrial and Energy Projects. In regions where water is needed for cooling, processing, or energy production, supply constraints can limit expansion or trigger costly infrastructure upgrades. This adds another layer of complexity to site selection and valuation.

Rural and Agricultural Land: The Front Line of Change

The Texas Real Estate Research Center notes that agricultural water use is declining, while municipal demand is increasing. That shift is redrawing the state’s economic map.

For rural landowners, this presents both risk and opportunity:

• Irrigated land dependent on stressed aquifers may face long-term production declines, influencing lease rates and resale value.

• Dryland farms or ranches with surface access, reliable wells, or transferable water rights could emerge as high-value holdings.

• Recreational and transitional tracts near growth corridors may gain appeal as developers seek parcels with verified water access for future residential or mixed-use projects.

Ultimately, water reliability is becoming a core differentiator in how land is appraised and marketed—and that will likely intensify in the coming decade.

The Regulatory and Planning Landscape

Texas’ water governance is complex, combining local groundwater conservation districts (GCDs) with state-level planning regions that forecast needs and set priorities.

Understanding which GCD or regional plan governs a property is now essential. Each district sets its own rules on:

• Drilling permits and well spacing

• Production limits and metering

• Transfer of water across district boundaries

For CRE professionals and investors, this regulatory patchwork adds both uncertainty and opportunity. Proactive engagement with these rules and alignment with regional water plans can help mitigate risk early in the due diligence process.

Quantifying the Impact on Land Value

From a valuation perspective, the water factor is moving from a background assumption to a primary driver of market value in certain regions. Analysts are now considering:

• Water Rights as a Distinct Asset: Rights can sometimes be leased, sold, or severed—introducing both upside potential and valuation complexity.

• Water Infrastructure as a Value Multiplier: Existing infrastructure (such as wells, tanks, or treatment capacity) can materially influence utility costs and development feasibility.

• Risk Adjustments for Scarcity: Properties in constrained supply areas may warrant downward adjustments or require alternative income projections based on water-dependent use restrictions.

For institutional investors or large portfolio managers, incorporating water risk into sensitivity models is becoming best practice—not only to forecast returns, but to ensure long-term sustainability of assets.

Preparing for a Water-Conscious Market

The next generation of Texas real estate decisions will require an awareness of water as capital—finite, valuable, and integral to growth. Steps forward include:

1. Conducting water resource audits during site selection and acquisition.

2. Integrating hydrological assessments into valuation and appraisal workflows.

3. Collaborating early with regional planners and utility providers.

4. Evaluating alternative supply strategies, such as water reuse or shared infrastructure agreements.

How Lowery Property Advisors Can Help

At Lowery Property Advisors, our team combines deep experience in valuation, regulatory awareness, and data-driven analysis to help clients navigate these evolving challenges.

We provide:

• Comprehensive water-related valuation assessments for land, agricultural, industrial, and development properties.

• Due diligence support that evaluates how supply reliability and regulation influence project feasibility.

• Market insights that translate environmental data into actionable investment intelligence.

Water scarcity may be reshaping Texas—but with the right perspective and planning, it also reveals where the next wave of opportunity will flow.

Navigating a Resource-Driven Market

As Texas enters a new era where water scarcity intersects with land use, understanding the data behind those shifts is essential for sound investment and valuation decisions.

At LPA, we’re dedicated to helping clients interpret how evolving environmental, regulatory, and market conditions influence property value across Texas. Our goal is to deliver clarity—turning complex dynamics like water availability into informed insight that supports confident, strategic decision-making.

To explore how shifting water trends could shape property values in your market, connect with your local LPA team or visit the Let’s Connect button on our website.

At LPA (Lowery Property Advisors), growth means more than opening new offices or serving more clients—it means growing people, developing leaders, and adding value to lives. These three principles (our core focus) are the foundation of everything we do as a national commercial real estate valuation firm.

They guide how we lead our teams, partner with clients, and expand across the country. As we continue to grow, now with 12 offices nationwide and more on the way, our focus remains the same: investing in our people, building strong leaders, and creating meaningful value that reaches far beyond the numbers on an appraisal report.

Growing People: Investing in Our Team First

Every strong company starts with strong people. At LPA, we believe that when you invest in your team, you invest in your future.

We’ve built an environment where every team member has opportunities to grow both personally and professionally. Through on-the-job training, mentorship, and access to industry-leading technology, we empower our people to do their best work and build rewarding real estate valuation careers.

That dedication has helped LPA attract top valuation professionals who are passionate about excellence and integrity. It’s also created a workplace culture where people feel valued, challenged, and supported—something that clients can feel in every interaction.

When our people grow, so does the quality of our work. Every report, every valuation, and every client relationship reflects the care and expertise of our team.

Developing Leaders: Building the Future of Commercial Valuation

Leadership at LPA is about more than titles—it’s about mindset. We develop leaders at every level, from our associates to senior managing directors.

Our leaders are trusted advisors in commercial real estate valuation and consulting, helping clients navigate market changes with confidence and clarity. They’re also mentors who inspire others within the firm to take initiative, innovate, and deliver consistent quality.

As a result, our leadership bench is deep and dynamic—a major factor behind our rapid national expansion to 12 offices across the United States. As we continue to grow into new markets, our leaders ensure that our culture and client-first standards remain strong and consistent everywhere we operate.

The future of the commercial appraisal industry belongs to those who can lead with both expertise and integrity—and at LPA, that’s exactly the kind of leadership we’re building every day.

Adding Value to Lives: Beyond Appraisals

While precision and accuracy are at the heart of what we do, our purpose goes beyond the numbers.

To us, “adding value to lives” means creating real impact—for our team, our clients, and our communities.

• For our team, it means offering a workplace where they can build meaningful careers, grow as leaders, and achieve balance in their lives.

• For our clients, it means providing insight and reliability that informs better investment and lending decisions.

• For our communities, it means contributing to sustainable growth and supporting local economies through ethical, high-quality valuation practices.

At every level, we measure success not only by what we deliver but by the positive effect it has on others.

A Culture That Scales With Growth

Culture is the foundation that allows LPA to grow without losing its identity. Even as we’ve become a nationwide commercial appraisal company, our people-centered philosophy has remained the same.

Every new office—from Texarkana to Corpus Christi and Denver to Atlanta—is built on a shared commitment to collaboration, integrity, and continuous improvement. We don’t just open offices; we plant teams that live our values and represent our brand with pride.

That consistency is one of the key reasons clients choose to partner with LPA. They know they’ll receive the same exceptional service, communication, and attention to detail—no matter where they are in the country.

Our culture also plays a major role in why people choose to build their careers at LPA, and why they stay. We’ve created an environment where growth is encouraged, leadership is cultivated, and everyone has a voice.

Our National Growth Story

LPA’s expansion to 12 offices and counting is a reflection of both market demand and our people’s dedication. As one of the fastest-growing commercial real estate valuation firms in the nation, we’re strategically growing to meet the needs of clients in more markets while maintaining the local expertise and personal relationships that set us apart.

Each new office strengthens our ability to deliver localized insights backed by national resources—ensuring that our clients receive accurate, data-driven appraisals and advisory services wherever they do business.

And behind every new location are the people—the appraisers, research team, leadership, and support staff—who live out our core focus daily and make our growth possible.

Why Our Core Focus Matters

Our core focus isn’t just a statement on a wall; it’s the reason we’ve built one of the most respected real estate advisory firms in the industry. It keeps us aligned, grounded, and inspired to push forward—together.

• Growing People keeps our teams strong.

• Developing Leaders ensures our future.

• Adding Value to Lives defines our legacy.

These principles shape how we work, how we lead, and how we deliver value to every client partnership.

Looking Ahead

As we look toward the future, LPA’s growth is guided by more than strategy—it’s driven by purpose. We’ll continue to expand our footprint while deepening our commitment to our people, our clients, and the industry we serve.

Whether you’re a client seeking a trusted valuation partner or a professional looking to grow your career in a forward-thinking environment, LPA is growing in all the right ways.

Because at the end of the day, success isn’t just about growth in size—it’s about growth in people, leadership, and the lives we touch along the way.

Join Our Story

If you’re a talented appraiser or ready to grow, lead, and make an impact, or if you’re a client seeking a valuation partner who values people as much as performance, we invite you to learn more on our About Us tab and Careers tab.

Growing People. Developing Leaders. Adding Value to Lives.
That’s who we are—and who we’re proud to be.

Recent comments from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent describing the U.S. housing market as being “in recession” come just weeks after the Federal Reserve issued its second rate cut of the year—bringing interest rates to their lowest level in nearly three years.

For many in the commercial real estate (CRE) sector, this combination of policy easing and recession talk paints a complicated picture: the economy is slowing, but not collapsing. At LPA, our appraisal and research teams are watching closely as lower rates begin to influence cap rates, financing availability, and investor confidence heading into 2026.

Economic Crosscurrents

Bessent’s remarks highlight a growing divide in how different parts of the economy are reacting to monetary policy. While the Fed’s rate cuts are designed to stimulate lending and spending, they also signal concerns about underlying economic weakness.

In residential housing, demand has softened under the weight of prior rate hikes. In commercial real estate, however, the picture is more nuanced. Lower rates could offer welcome relief for borrowers seeking to refinance or close deals, but lenders remain conservative, and many investors are still adjusting to a post-2020 pricing reality.

Rate cuts can unlock capital, but often confidence drives transactions. Until investors feel more clarity about where the economy is heading, the market will likely remain cautious.

CRE Valuation Landscape

Appraisers are beginning to see subtle shifts following the Fed’s latest move. Cap rate expansion has slowed, and in some markets, prime assets are regaining stability as lower borrowing costs begin to balance earlier pricing pressure.

Industrial and multifamily properties continue to outperform, while office assets remain under scrutiny. Still, the biggest story may be the pause in downward momentum—a sign that CRE values may be entering a period of relative equilibrium after two years of volatility.

What to Expect Going Into 2026

If the Fed maintains a lower-rate trajectory through next year, we could see a modest rebound in transaction activity as financing becomes more accessible and investors recalibrate return targets. However, most analysts agree that growth will likely be measured rather than explosive, as both buyers and lenders prioritize stability over speculation.

At the same time, continued caution from policymakers underscores a shared recognition that rate cuts alone can’t fix structural challenges—from office sector oversupply to shifting tenant demand patterns.

LPA Key Takeaways

• Conflicting Signals: Treasury warns of a housing recession even as the Fed cuts rates to a three-year low.

• CRE Outlook Stabilizing: Lower rates are slowing cap rate expansion and improving financing conditions.

• Investor Sentiment Mixed: Capital is available, but confidence remains uneven across asset classes.

• Refinancing Activity Rising: Owners are revisiting loan terms to capture new rate opportunities.

• 2026 Outlook: Expect cautious optimism—slower growth, but a firmer foundation for long-term recovery.

Stay Ahead of Market Shifts

Understanding how monetary policy, inflation trends, and capital costs intersect with valuation fundamentals can make all the difference in decision-making and investment strategy.

To discuss how current market dynamics could impact your next project or portfolio, connect with your local LPA team or reach out to us directly on our website.

In commercial real estate, every decision—whether to buy, sell, lease, or refinance—starts with understanding a property’s true value. Accurate appraisals are more than numbers on a page; they’re the foundation of informed, strategic investment decisions. At LPA, we believe precision and integrity in valuation give our clients the confidence to move forward with clarity.

1. The Power of Accurate Data in Real Estate

Real estate markets shift constantly. A reliable appraisal transforms raw market data into insight, helping investors and lenders assess risk, opportunity, and return. Accurate valuations ensure projects are financially viable and that stakeholders can make sound decisions grounded in data, not assumptions.

2. The Risks of Inaccurate Valuation

When an appraisal misses the mark, the consequences can be costly—overpaying for a property, losing financing, or misjudging an investment’s long-term potential. A data-driven approach minimizes those risks by capturing the full picture: market trends, comparable sales, income potential, and location dynamics.

3. How LPA Ensures Precision

At LPA, every appraisal begins with a commitment to accuracy and consistency.

• Comprehensive market analysis: Our team studies local and regional trends across multiple property types.

• Collaborative expertise: Each report benefits from internal peer review and decades of combined experience across Texas markets.

• Technology-driven efficiency: Leveraging advanced valuation tools and verified data sources allows us to deliver reliable insights faster—without sacrificing quality.

4. The Investor Advantage

For investors, developers, and lenders, partnering with a data-focused appraisal firm means more than compliance—it’s a strategic advantage. Accurate appraisals lead to smarter investments, stronger portfolios, and greater long-term stability in a competitive market.

5. Our Commitment to Integrity

Data can tell a story, but integrity gives it meaning. At LPA, we take pride in producing objective, defensible valuations that stand up to scrutiny. Our clients trust that every number, every analysis, and every report reflects our unwavering dedication to quality.

Closing Thought

In today’s fast-paced real estate market, data drives decisions—but accuracy drives success. At Lowery Property Advisors, we’re proud to be the trusted source investors, lenders, and property owners rely on for sound, data-backed insights.

Last week, Blaire Hamilton, Director of Finance & Operations, and Ashley Travis, HR & Talent Acquisition Manager, had the opportunity to represent Lowery Property Advisors at the EntreLeadership Master Series, a premier leadership event hosted by Dave Ramsey’s team at PGA Frisco.

The week-long event brought together leaders, business owners, and professionals from across the country for an immersive experience designed to challenge the way organizations think about culture, growth, and leadership. Each day focused on strategies for leading with clarity, fostering accountability, and building teams that thrive—both in business and beyond.

Key Themes & Takeaways

Throughout the conference, sessions and speakers emphasized several key themes that deeply resonated with our team:

• Creating a unified culture — Aligning people around shared values and a common vision that drives every decision.

• Adapting to change — Staying flexible and embracing innovation to stay ahead in a rapidly evolving market.

• Leading with discipline — Practicing effective time management and personal leadership habits to boost productivity and focus.

• Building meaningful connection — Strengthening communication and trust within teams to enhance collaboration and morale.

Beyond the classroom, the event also provided an invaluable opportunity to network with other leaders and business owners. Conversations around challenges, lessons learned, and fresh perspectives sparked ideas that we’re excited to bring back to LPA.

Putting Lessons into Practice

Returning from the conference, Blaire and Ashley have begun developing a custom action plan to integrate these insights into our day-to-day operations. From refining internal communication and strengthening leadership development to identifying new ways to support team growth, the goal is simple—to make LPA an even better place to work, learn, and lead.

This commitment directly supports our company’s core focus:

Growing People. Developing Leaders. Adding Value to Lives.

By continuing to invest in learning opportunities like the EntreLeadership Master Series, we’re ensuring that LPA remains a place where people grow—both professionally and personally. Every insight gained, every conversation had, and every new idea shared moves us closer to becoming the best version of ourselves—as individuals, as teams, and as a company.

At LPA, leadership isn’t just a title—it’s a mindset. And experiences like these help us keep that mindset strong, focused, and aligned with the values that define who we are.

In the realm of commercial real estate appraisal, reputation isn’t just a byproduct of good service—it’s the cornerstone of sustained success. At Lowery Property Advisors (LPA), we understand that our credibility is built on consistent, transparent, and client-focused practices. This commitment has propelled us to the forefront of the industry, allowing us to deliver accurate and timely valuations across the Southwest.

Reputation: The Bedrock of Appraisal Excellence

Commercial real estate appraisal is inherently a reputation-driven industry. Clients entrust appraisers with critical decisions that can influence investments, financing, and strategic planning. Therefore, the integrity and reliability of an appraisal firm are paramount.

LPA has cultivated a strong reputation by adhering to best practices and industry standards. Our team employs the three primary valuation approaches—sales comparison, cost, and income capitalization—tailoring each to the unique aspects of the property in question. This methodological rigor ensures that our clients receive valuations grounded in thorough analysis and market insight.

Moreover, our adherence to the Uniform Standards of Professional Appraisal Practice (USPAP) underscores our commitment to ethical standards and transparency. We believe that full disclosure of methodologies, assumptions, and data sources fosters trust and confidence among our clients.

Clear and Open Communication: A Client-Centric Philosophy

At LPA, we recognize that effective communication is as crucial as technical expertise. Our approach goes beyond delivering reports; we engage in meaningful conversations with our clients to ensure clarity and address any concerns.

Whether it’s a complex valuation or a straightforward inquiry, our team is accessible and responsive. We prioritize picking up the phone to discuss nuances, explain methodologies, or provide updates. This proactive communication fosters a collaborative relationship, ensuring that our clients are informed and confident throughout the appraisal process.

Our commitment to clear communication extends to our digital presence as well. Through our blog and resources, we demystify appraisal concepts, share industry insights, and provide guidance on navigating the appraisal landscape. This transparency empowers our clients to make informed decisions and reinforces our role as trusted advisors.

Personal Branding: Showcasing Expertise and Building Client Confidence

In an industry where expertise and trust are paramount, personal branding plays a vital role—not just for our team, but for our clients. At LPA, we encourage our team members to cultivate their professional identities, sharing their knowledge and experiences through professional organizations, industry events, and online platforms.

By highlighting our team’s expertise, we give clients confidence in the professionals they are working with. This approach humanizes our brand, making it easier for clients to feel comfortable asking questions, discussing concerns, and relying on our guidance. Our active presence on platforms like LinkedIn, along with participation in appraisal and commercial real estate organizations, ensures that our team stays at the forefront of industry developments—knowledge that directly benefits our clients.

This focus on personal branding translates into stronger relationships and better service. When clients see that our professionals are engaged, knowledgeable, and respected in the industry, they gain assurance that the valuations and advice they receive are informed, reliable, and tailored to their specific needs.

Trust Through Transparency and Expertise

At Lowery Property Advisors, our reputation reflects our unwavering commitment to excellence, integrity, and client satisfaction. By adhering to industry best practices, fostering open communication, and cultivating a team whose expertise is visible and trusted, we have become a reliable partner in commercial real estate appraisal.

Our clients can rely on us not only for accurate valuations but also for a collaborative and transparent experience. As we continue to grow and evolve, our focus remains on delivering exceptional service and building lasting relationships based on trust and mutual respect.

Ready to experience the difference? Reach out to us today to discuss your commercial real estate appraisal needs and discover how our team’s expertise and client-first approach can support your goals.